onsdag 29. september 2010

Tuesday 28th of September

Good day,
We now have 2 sessions left of the quarter and it will be interesting to see if we have an end of the quarter sell off?
Tuesday price action was a bit like expected following the down day Monday, it drove lower off the open and hit 1127.50 low. We then saw some massive volume, at least relative to recent days, coming in at that low level. The 5min bar traded more than 114k contracts, which is the most we have seen on any 5min bar over the last 2 weeks. The significance of these high volume bars is important because most reversals start with a high volume bar. The higher volume the stronger the reaction off that level often tend to be. One thing to note is also the seasonal and relative factor.
114k contracts is maybe not much in November or some other time of the year when we see higher daily volumes, but it was certainly noteworthy for current conditions. I pay more attention in terms of relative value than the actual number of contracts. Is that bar standing out to recent things we have seen? If the answer Of course I also look at other time frames to judge the volume in an interest area.
Another thing to note is that the low last Wednesday was 1126.50, so that was fairly close to Tuesday's low as well.
On the options trading I did the following changes:
I bot back the 1090 and 1100 puts (at 7 and 6 points) and sold a small 1120 puts position (at 11 points) instead to get more premium and decrease the risk to the downside if we see a larger move.
I also bot back the 1140 short call for 19's and instead sold a 1140 put for expiration Friday.
On the futures side the net result was -7.2 points on the day and the total result of the day for the portfolio was -0,16%.
On the open position side I still have net short delta with more calls than puts.
That is all for now, have a great day.

Ingen kommentarer:

Legg inn en kommentar