mandag 13. september 2010

Monday 13th of September

New week and new opportunities.
Equities higher on BASEL 3 news and good economic data from China. Turkish referendum also a positive. S&P futures gapping 10.25 points on the open and closed fairly close to the open, 1 point higher than the open. Looking like a doji on daily chart.
Big resistance up at 1122 and 1127. See MrTopstep video:
http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/13/whatcha-gonna-do/

As for trading it was a relatively busy day. As I have plenty of short calls from 1090 and up, so I had to stay on the long side to protect the upside. Fairly active day with 16 trades in the ES for 16 points gain total and made 15 adjustments to the options portfolio.

The gap higher forced me to make quite a few changes that would have not be done in a non gapping market. Basically had to sell a bit more premium (selling short term puts and also some long term calls) to make up for the lack of long delta on the gap and also close out some of the way out of the money puts to reduce the risk if we see a big swing lower. Which I still think could happen as long as 1128 resistance holds. I always try to make sure I take off puts and calls that have very little comparative value left and especially if they are far away from the current price to allow me to sell something that is either closer to market or just take some risk off if it were to make a big move. Last thing I want to happen is to have an option that I have sold at 25 points and suddenly has a value of 5 points with a few months to go stuck in my portfolio. I prefer to then take profit to avoid this option coming into play again. Make more sense to me then to sell something with much higher Theta instead then to grind out those last 5 points.

Ok, back to the adjustments I made:
I closed the short 1090 calls and 1090 puts for Sep. I also closed the 1110 calls for Sep. I took profit on the 1100 puts for Sep (bot back at 2.80 or so) and 1030 for October (bot back around 7 points). Instead I sold 1060 puts for October, getting on avg. 10.75 points for those. Sold some more call options at 1140 and 1150 for Nov, which is basically above the 1128 key resistance area with some margin and I assume if this level breaks, the downside puts can be bot back cheap.
That is the logic for selling those levels. I also added some 1120 puts for Friday, just to make up for the lack of long delta on the gap higher on the open. Will most likely close them out in the next few sessions, was more a short theta short term play. I am at the moment still Delta minus, meaning I am short in real terms overall.
Would not be surprised to see a dip overnight and possibly that gap at 1105.75 to be closed sometime over the next few sessions, so I will most likely remain short biased for the next few sessions unless that 1122 and possibly 1128 resistance levels breaks.

That is it for now, time to watch the Nadal - Djokovic US Open Final, good night.

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