fredag 3. september 2010

Friday 3rd of September

Good evening, willl keep it short on this Friday evening as the weekend is around the corner and have an early flight to catch tomorrow morning.
First of all my predictions from earlier this week turned out to be right that S&P futures would break out of the 1037 to 1098.50 range before Tuesday next week and also that 1037 should be a bottom near term and it should go up to the top of the recent range. Both proved right and I am sitting and wondering what will happen next? I see two possible scenarios. First scenario is a total take off and break above 1126.75 and new highs for the year above 1212. Other scenario is for a reverals back into the range, with a possible false break above 1108.50 or even 1126.75 before going lower. Max pain for most traders would probably be a break above 1126.75 to take out short stops and get traders long and then reverse back lower leaving the shorts out of the move and the longs in losing positions. I like to always look at what would cause the most problems for traders and note that down for possible future reference. For the moment it looks bullish, so my best guess is for a continued upmove near term, but we have a huge resistance area from 1104 to 1108.50 that must be broken first. There has been of course a significant move higher last week and correction should be normal, but what is normal about the recent markets moves?
As for today's trading I had to make several adjustments. First I took more profit on the short puts I had outstanding, closing the remainding 1050 and 1090 short puts for a nice profit. I also had a bit too much short calls on, so need to balance the delta a bit, selling 1070 and 1080 puts. Also sold some 1100 puts for September, right after the NFP release to make the 1100 short calls (that I already had on) into a short straddle instead of an outright short call position.
I also sold 1110 calls for September expiration as it made sense to have something just above the key 1104 to 1108.50 resistance zone. I had to take off some of the 1090 short calls that, which was somewhat hedged, for a loss as the exposure around the 1090 level was a bit high. Although, I still have a few 1090 short calls for September and tiny postion with 1090 calls for October. Sold more 1120 calls for October as it make sense to be short calls with effective break even above the 1126.75 last reaction high level. The reason being that if 1126.75 breaks (key level and August high) the 1030 and 1040 short puts I have will fall in value considerably and the volatility will drop as well, making the short puts and calls portfolio profit from the drop in volatility. Last by not least I made 7.6 points on ES trading to the long side all trades except one trade.
Could certainly been more aggressive to the long side after the dip towards 1093.50, but my strategy was to trade long towards 1103 or so then to leave it for a possible failure at that 1104 to 1106 resistance, which it did initially, but should have gone long again when the reversal bars showed up after the 1093 level held. But as the saying goes: "If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we’d all have a merry Christmas” (Don Meredith)

Wish you all a great weekend, take care.

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