onsdag 15. september 2010

Tuesday 14th of September

The S&P futures broke the August high by 0.50 points yesterday (if you look at a contiunous ES chart the Aug top was 1122), but it could not follow through and backed off to close in the lower half of the daily range and also below Monday's close.
This price action is see as weak and would not be suprised to see a move lower Wednesday and at least to close the 1105.75 gap from Friday last week. We also have a gap down at 1054.25 from 31st of August worth keeping in mind.
As far as the trading goes I had to make furter adjustments Tuesday.
First of all I had to go long to hedge the short calls and this went well, but when it reversed I was stuck long, so the earlier gains in the morning got reduced and made 3 points total trading long in the futures.
For the options I made the following changes:
I sold an additional small put postion of the 1060 puts for October and also sold more 1130 calls for October. I don't think both of these levels will come into play short term as I think we either break higher above 1130 to move towards 1160 and 1060 is then way out of reach. Or we fail here around the 1122 to 1127 level and move lower. I sold more 1130 than 1060 so I have more calls. I also closed the short 1090 calls and instead sold some 1160 calls for November expiration, getting around 18.50 for those.
On the September options I reduced some risk by buying back the 1110 and 1115 puts when we tested the daily highs and instead sold some 1130 Sep as I need an hedge for some of the short calls in the money at 1120. I also bought back the 1110 Sep calls to reduce some of the long exposure.
I now have basically now have short calls for October at 1100, 1120 and 1130.
Short puts for October at 1040, 1060 and 1080. November I have 1140, 1150 and 1160 calls. I also have 1120 and 1130 puts for expiration Friday as a hedge that I will most likely make futher changes to Wednesday as they are just meant as short term hegdes if 1123 breaks, which I don't see that likely today.
Think we need to see a correction lower before a move higher.
I also have the VIX position where I sold the October 30 calls and bot the Nov 27.50 calls at a ratio of 1X1.
My bias is to have mostly short calls and trade long against these calls, a few reasons why I like that approach is that you are less exposed to quick down moves and volatility expansion.
Remember to watch Tuesday's Top Notch:

http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/14/top-notch-key-levels/


That is all for today, Good luck and take care.

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