tirsdag 26. oktober 2010

Monday 25th of October

We did not get any down move to confirm the no demand bar on Friday, but I do note down that we have the no demand bar in the background and in fact today's bar looks like and uptrust making a new multi month high and the close was more than 11 points of the high at 1193, closing at 1182.75. To close that far off the high indicates selling otherwise it is no way it would close that far off the highs.
I do pay attention to this weakness, but purely technically we have the bullish trend intact as long as we don’t have a daily close below 1175.
S&P futures chart: http://chart.ly/98pdssp

As I mentioned Friday I would make some major changes to the options portfolio in the start of this week and indeed I did quite a bit today.
ES gapped up a bit today, which was not optimal since I have to close off the short calls a bit higher then I really wanted, but in return I got a bit more for the calls I sold and I was long the futures, so all in all worked out rather well.
Basically as I think the volatility will rise going into Friday's US advance GDP and next week's FOMC decision I bot back many options today.
Overall the portfolio declined 0,32% on the day as I not enough long in the futures to compensate for the short calls I have on.
I bot back some of most of the 1180 November calls 27 to 28. I also bot back 1190 November calls and sold some 1210 December calls, for a net zero. selling the 1210 Dec for around 21.50 and buying the 1190 Nov calls for 21.50.
I also took home 34.50 points in the Futures on the day, of course some of it from long hedges over last sessions. I also bot back the short 1160 puts for Friday (29 Oct) as the value was 1.50 points it was no point keeping them. In case we dropped lower and they would come back into play I would regret big time if I had not taken them off for 1.50. I did sell a small portion of 1150 puts for November 19th just as a bit of hedge against the calls now mainly sitting above 1200 and up. I also see that 1150 as a key support level. If we have a daily close below 1150 we could head much lower, so since I view that as a key level it make sense to have something on at that level as well. I am still heavily short delta and hedging via trading long in the futures. We are approaching key 1198 and 1207 resistance levels and would expect a correction lower. The only problem is that basically everybody is looking for a move lower and most are way underinvested in stocks, so that is a good enough reason to go higher.

That is all for now, have a nice day

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