mandag 25. oktober 2010

Friday 22nd of October

Narrow range in the S&P futures today with high to low of only 6 points. It looks like a possible no demand bar, which is a narrow up bar closing on the highs with relatively low volume and at least volume of less than previous 2 bars.
Looking at the volume it was really low, only 1.240m contracts on the Emini futures on the day compared to the 50 day average of 1.981m.
However we need to see a confirmation on this no demand bar to really get excited about the downside. So put simply we are bullish above 1175 support now with next resistance being 1198 and 1207. Key support remains 1150 and 1127.
Today I did mostly short term trading around the daily options with intra day trading of the 1180 puts and calls and 1175 puts, was quite a few trades, so a bit too much to write down every single trade, but overall I made 0.90% on the day.
I made no changes to the longer term options portfolio.
I remain long in the futures to hedge the short calls from 1170 to 1210 at the moment.
My plan is to extract more theta (time value) out of the long calls over the weekend probably volatility will drop a bit more too.
Then I plan to make some major changes to the portfolio Monday as I suspect that volatility will start to rise next week as we get ready for the FOMC following week.
The idea is to scale back start of the week and don't have that many positions on when we approach end of the week as the volatility is likely to rise.
G-20 is of course an event risk over the weekend as well.

Today's Mr. Top Step: http://mrtopstep.com/2010/10/22/thin-market-with-range-trading/

That is all for now, have a nice weekend

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