The volume was higher than yesterday and the ability to hold the downside is rather impressive I have to say. Seems to be plenty of buyers on dips. I was looking for a deeper correction to test the 1317 support (break out level from Friday), but just not much downside momentum at the moment. It is difficult to be very bearish at the moment, just looks quite strong in my opinion. Need to see some pretty bad news to make it go much lower than 1317, is my feeling at the moment. Key resistance remains the 1340.25 (high from 31st of May). I still think it would be healthy to see a correction to 1317. We have 7 straight up sessions now, for 71.5 points in the ES.
No changes made to the S&P 500 emini structure today.
I did one trade today, put on a Euro options spread to crush some Theta (time value) in the 8 Jul 1.42 put options, which was trading close to 19% vols beacause of the ECB and NFP event risks over the next 2 sessions.
I sold 2x the 1.42 8 Jul puts for 40 pips each and bought 1X the 1,42 put for 5 Jul expiration. This position is slightly long delta and had Theta of 414 USD per day. I expect the Theta to drop substancially after the ECB press conference tomorrow.
I will hedge the delta if we break 1.4250 as well.
Gold moved up substancially today, taking out both 1520 and 1530 resitance levels.
I don't think it will expand much further heading into to NFP, so I will keep the Gold structure as it stands for now.
Crude had a successful test of the 96 break out level (now support) early on in the sessiosn and it looks rather bullish now for a test to break 98 key resistance. Looks tempting to put on a call structure above 98 and trade against it in the futures, cause I see 98.35 level as the pivot level now. Will see if we can get a test of 98 or so over the next few sessions to put on a trade.
Crude oil Aug futures chart below.
See complete trading log here
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