I contiune to trade the S&P futures and options strategy, mainly selling options and hedging the delta. This is a pretty active program so I cannot post all trades as hedges and options are adjusted dynamically as the market trades.
That being said, my bias was for a move higher today, following 6 straight down sessions and losing 62 points. Was actually looking for a move higher yesterday as well, but that didn't happen. Felt we got a bit too short too fast over the last sessions. My bullish confirmation was the break above 1383.50 and that signalled to me the market would look for 1295. Why 1295? Because that is the 2 days high and a read reversal would only take place if we break above 1295. I mentioned this on twitter today as well during the day.
The high turned out to be 1294. Another thing that stands out is the lack of volume on the rally today, only 973k contracts in the S&P 500 Emini. The average volume the previous 6 sessions was above 2m per day. The explanation for this if of course the roll into the September month contract.
In other markets the Euro was all over the place during the Trichet press conference. When it broke 1.4550 I felt the pressure would be to the downside and I think we can see 1.42 or so near term now. I saw value in selling the 1.45 put for expiration tomorrow (CME contract, not OTC) when futures traded 1.4536 as the vols was above 20%, paying me 54 pips. I hedged the delta right away going short at 1.4536. So that will be interesting to see how develops towards the expiration at 21 CET tomorrow. My strategy is to sell more futures if we break 1.4470. if we go higher I have to take some shorts off, but only if we break 1.4550. I did trade some scalping on the Corn following the gap open above the key resistance at 767, making. Closed right at key resistance at 784, so it could go both ways near term I reckon. But general feeling is buying dips above 767 (former resistance now support)
Will come back with more info in the morning. Good night
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