The quarter ended with a good move to the upside in the S&P 500 futures once again as we tend to see toward quarter end. We have now rallied just more than 50 points in the S&P 500 futures since Friday, not bad. It does looks overbaught now and it will be interesting to see if it can contiune the rally and take out that falling key resistance from the yearly high, which is coming in at 1317.
Corn had a huge move lower today following the USDA acreage report, which totally caught the market on the wrong foot. We had no limit in the July contract and it closed down by 69 cents, 9,9%. That is just nuts. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-30/wheat-plunges-to-11-month-low-corn-drops-after-u-s-reports-acreage-gains.html
I am considering setting up a trade (options) looking for somewhat of an retracement of today's drop. Will come back to that over the next few sessions.
Trading wise I did plenty of adjustments in the S&P 500 emini futures. See the log for all trades. The 1300 short puts expired out of the money, giving me the total premum collected in profit. Had to buy back the 1280 calls though as the market gained momentum to the upside. My thinking is that we should see a dip back down to 1292 next 3 sessions, which I am positioned for. If we break higher above 1317 I need to hedge more delta, so we will see what the market brings. I also sold 2x 1340 calls for August expiration at 15 per contract, thinking that the upside should go much slower from here, so should be able to get out quite a bit of time value on those.
I also added one more put spread in the Euro right before the close. I think we will trade down towards the 1.43 to 1.4250 level pretty quickly again.
See full list of trades here
Good luck
Daily blog with thoughts and comments on the futures and forex markets through the eyes of Per-Erik Karlsson, Ceo at Avantage Financial, Switzerland.
torsdag 30. juni 2011
Trading log updated 13:30 CET
I have posted the updated trading log including today's trades (ES options marked in red).
See trading log here
See trading log here
trading recap Wednesday 29th of June
Complete trading log here
Another up day in the S&P 500 and we have now rallied very strongly off that low of 1261 on Friday last week. A few things that I want to point out. We have 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1361 to 1252 move comes in at 1307, which is now the next resistance level. See S&P 500 emini daily chart below.
The 60min chart below looks pretty overbought and I don't think much has really changed the last few days. The Greek austerity vote is of course positive, but the upside from here is probably a bit more difficult than the bounce we have seen from 1250 area a few times now. I see chance for a pretty quick dip towards 1292 support over the next few sessions. A daily close below 1292 would be bad news for the bullish momentum. I am positioned for a dip in the options structure I have on in the S&P, so I don't want it to go above this 1307 resistance.
Trading wise I closed out the corn structure for a total of 837,50 USD in profit. The reason is simply that we have the USDA Acerage report out before the open tomorrow and I see the risk for a pretty big move in either direction, so not interested in playing that joker card as I have no strong bias on the outcome of that report.
Crude oil rallied strongly following DOE crude inventory data showed a larger than expected draw and got well above 94.07 gap we had on the daily chart. Next key resistance is the 96 level.
Another up day in the S&P 500 and we have now rallied very strongly off that low of 1261 on Friday last week. A few things that I want to point out. We have 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1361 to 1252 move comes in at 1307, which is now the next resistance level. See S&P 500 emini daily chart below.
The 60min chart below looks pretty overbought and I don't think much has really changed the last few days. The Greek austerity vote is of course positive, but the upside from here is probably a bit more difficult than the bounce we have seen from 1250 area a few times now. I see chance for a pretty quick dip towards 1292 support over the next few sessions. A daily close below 1292 would be bad news for the bullish momentum. I am positioned for a dip in the options structure I have on in the S&P, so I don't want it to go above this 1307 resistance.
Trading wise I closed out the corn structure for a total of 837,50 USD in profit. The reason is simply that we have the USDA Acerage report out before the open tomorrow and I see the risk for a pretty big move in either direction, so not interested in playing that joker card as I have no strong bias on the outcome of that report.
Crude oil rallied strongly following DOE crude inventory data showed a larger than expected draw and got well above 94.07 gap we had on the daily chart. Next key resistance is the 96 level.
tirsdag 28. juni 2011
Trading recapTuesday 28th of June
Another risk rally today and the S&P 500 emini (ES) futures closed at 1294,25 just above last week's high of 1293,75. This give us a higher low and a higher high on the daily chart. See daily ES chart below
Had to hedge more delta as we gained momemtum to the upside in the ES. I still see the 1294 to 1295 as the key resistance at the moment. We have not really broken clean to the upside yet, just one point is not enough to convince me to put it that way. Although the rally has been quite strong off that 1261,25 low from Friday as you can see on the hourly chart, we only have 2 down bars last 2 sessions.
60 min chart
I made some adjustements to my ES options structure as I bought back the 4x 1270 exp 30 June calls and closed the 2 long futures and instead I sold 2X 1295 exp 30 June calls instead and sold 2x 1310 July calls (exp 15 Jul). My thinking is that if we break above 1295 by 2 points or so the market so have further upside potential. While below 1295 I still see risk for a move lower. Therefore I postioned myself for that scenario by using those options to express that instead of being purely short in the futures. The futures have traded fairly choppy last week and been tricky in my opinion. This options position give me a bit more margin for error so to speak.
I also closed out the Euro structure for 1100 profit today, so that is good.
Full list of the trading log here
Good luck
Had to hedge more delta as we gained momemtum to the upside in the ES. I still see the 1294 to 1295 as the key resistance at the moment. We have not really broken clean to the upside yet, just one point is not enough to convince me to put it that way. Although the rally has been quite strong off that 1261,25 low from Friday as you can see on the hourly chart, we only have 2 down bars last 2 sessions.
60 min chart
I made some adjustements to my ES options structure as I bought back the 4x 1270 exp 30 June calls and closed the 2 long futures and instead I sold 2X 1295 exp 30 June calls instead and sold 2x 1310 July calls (exp 15 Jul). My thinking is that if we break above 1295 by 2 points or so the market so have further upside potential. While below 1295 I still see risk for a move lower. Therefore I postioned myself for that scenario by using those options to express that instead of being purely short in the futures. The futures have traded fairly choppy last week and been tricky in my opinion. This options position give me a bit more margin for error so to speak.
I also closed out the Euro structure for 1100 profit today, so that is good.
Full list of the trading log here
Good luck
Market Report Tuesday 28 of June
Full pdf version with links
Risk on yesterday and seems like it will continue today, at least that the moment with the S&P 500 emini futures trading up 8.50 points at 1284.75. That is well of the low we saw Friday at 1261.25. So it appears that we have once more bounce off that 1250 to 1260 support zone. The key level to get above now in my opinion to open for a larger rally is 1294, as that would make a higher low and higher high on the daily chart. Last week’s high was also 1293.75.
The market is very much news driven and the market is closely following the developments in Greece. We will have the austerity vote as the major event this week. My view for some time has been that the only likely outcome of the Greece story will be a structured or outright default. I just don’t see it possible for Greece to pay back the mounting debt they are accumulating within a reasonable timeline.
The US debt limit discussion is also another event risk on the horizon to keep an eye on going forward.
I also see there has been another bank failure in Denmark over the last days, Fjordbank Mors, a regional bank.
http://www.independent.ie/business/european/bondholders-face-losses-as-another-danish-bank-fails-2806921.html
Back the markets and what I am looking at this week.
Gold is looking interesting I think for a possible rebound
Looking at a few interesting points in the markets trading wise:
- Looking for a rebound in Gold towards 1520 over the next few sessions
- US 10 year futures is looking overbought and downside target is 123’20
- Euro has key resistance at 1.4496 that I think will be difficult to take out this week
- EURCHF looking very attractive to get long for a move back above 1.22
- Crude oil looks interesting to buy on dips above 89.50 for a move back to 93.80
- Corn looks oversold, first upside target is 690
Today’s calendar:
16.00 US consumer confidence
18.45 Bank of Canada Dep. Gov. Cote speaks
19.00 Fed's Fisher speaks
01.50 Japan industrial production
POMO, at 16:15 to 17:00, scheduled of $4 - $5 billion to be bought by NY Fed.
Interesting headlines:
Finance Minister Seeks Votes for Greek Austerity Plan - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304314404576411462370052974.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Extent of local debts in China laid bare - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1e47d528-a092-11e0-b14e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1QQh2MtL3
Five biggest threats to the US economy - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8601623/Five-biggest-threats-to-the-US-economy.html
Greek minister warns of 'catastrophe' if parliamentary revolt leads to austerity bill being blocked - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8600703/Greek-minister-warns-of-catastrophe-if-parliamentary-revolt-leads-to-austerity-bill-being-blocked.html
A Greek debt buyback would avoid the dreaded default - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8599992/A-Greek-debt-buyback-would-avoid-the-dreaded-default.html
China is building a better future for all - The Telegraph by Wen Jiabao
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8601734/China-is-building-a-better-future-for-all.html
Greek Debt Talks Widen - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304314404576411730186291402.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Greek Bond Buybacks Discussed at Meeting - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303627104576411891577670756.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Gold Can't Hold $1,500 - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304447804576411391861041346.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hps_LEFTTopWhatNews
Euro Makes Gains on Greek Hopes - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304447804576410682053899822.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hps_sections_markets
U.K. Only Semi-Detached From Euro Zone's Troubles - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304447804576411690944730546.html
Dollar seen losing global reserve status - The WSJ -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/23183a78-a0c6-11e0-b14e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1QQh2MtL3
EU ‘Brady bonds’ plan for Greece - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7c1a1f94-a0a6-11e0-b14e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1QQh2MtL3
Give Greece time to prove it can do the job - The FT - By George Papaconstantinou
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fc16c638-a0f2-11e0-adae-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1QQh2MtL3
Obama Targets $72 Billion Business Tax Break - Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-27/obama-targets-72-billion-business-tax-break-republicans-balk.html
Technical’s and comments
Euro: The next level of key resistance is 1.4380 to 1.44, with 2 week high of 1.4496 as the big level to the upside for now. To the downside we have followed by 1.4230 and key support at 1.4150. This pair is very choppy and not my favorite market to trade at the moment. If I had to pick direction I would still look to sell rallies.
Cable: Prefer to sell rallies in this pair at the moment with 1.6040 as the first level that I see as a potential entry level.
USDJPY: Very tight range over the last sessions. I remain longer term bearish on the JPY as the fundamental factors in Japan looks ugly, with huge public debt and unfavorable demographics going forward. However the risk off over the last days has taken us below 80 again. Not sure if we see any intervention unless the move picks up in speed and magnitude. Buy on dips for the brave.
Swissy: I expect the CHF to underperform Euro as the 1.20 EURCHF looks very rich in CHF terms. So maybe better to play Euro is negative on USD. Swissy is bearish below 0.8500 for now, looking for 0.8300
AUDUSD: Buying on dips above 1.04 looks the most interesting for now. Look out for any stock market sell off as a trigger to get out of longs.
USDCAD: Still favor selling rallies for a move back below 0.9700. If we break above 0.9900 this view would be wrong I reckon.
S&P Future (ES): Good upside momentum yesterday and this morning, but I reckon we must see a daily close above 1294 to really get bullish. A daily close above 1294 would give us a higher low and higher high on the daily chart, which should open for more upside. Key support is 1260, followed by 1250 now.
Gold: Looks interesting to be long above 1490 with relatively tight stop.
Crude oil: Buy on dips above 89.50 I reckon for now and looking for a rally towards the resistance at 93.80 near term. Need to see a daily close above 95.50 to open for an extension to 98.50 near term. A daily close below 89.50 would be negative and would not hold long if we break below this level.
________________________________________
Risk Warning: Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Avantage Financial GmbH with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Regardless of the account type you choose, there are risks inherent in trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice. Prices can go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Risk on yesterday and seems like it will continue today, at least that the moment with the S&P 500 emini futures trading up 8.50 points at 1284.75. That is well of the low we saw Friday at 1261.25. So it appears that we have once more bounce off that 1250 to 1260 support zone. The key level to get above now in my opinion to open for a larger rally is 1294, as that would make a higher low and higher high on the daily chart. Last week’s high was also 1293.75.
The market is very much news driven and the market is closely following the developments in Greece. We will have the austerity vote as the major event this week. My view for some time has been that the only likely outcome of the Greece story will be a structured or outright default. I just don’t see it possible for Greece to pay back the mounting debt they are accumulating within a reasonable timeline.
The US debt limit discussion is also another event risk on the horizon to keep an eye on going forward.
I also see there has been another bank failure in Denmark over the last days, Fjordbank Mors, a regional bank.
http://www.independent.ie/business/european/bondholders-face-losses-as-another-danish-bank-fails-2806921.html
Back the markets and what I am looking at this week.
Gold is looking interesting I think for a possible rebound
Looking at a few interesting points in the markets trading wise:
- Looking for a rebound in Gold towards 1520 over the next few sessions
- US 10 year futures is looking overbought and downside target is 123’20
- Euro has key resistance at 1.4496 that I think will be difficult to take out this week
- EURCHF looking very attractive to get long for a move back above 1.22
- Crude oil looks interesting to buy on dips above 89.50 for a move back to 93.80
- Corn looks oversold, first upside target is 690
Today’s calendar:
16.00 US consumer confidence
18.45 Bank of Canada Dep. Gov. Cote speaks
19.00 Fed's Fisher speaks
01.50 Japan industrial production
POMO, at 16:15 to 17:00, scheduled of $4 - $5 billion to be bought by NY Fed.
Interesting headlines:
Finance Minister Seeks Votes for Greek Austerity Plan - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304314404576411462370052974.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Extent of local debts in China laid bare - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1e47d528-a092-11e0-b14e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1QQh2MtL3
Five biggest threats to the US economy - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8601623/Five-biggest-threats-to-the-US-economy.html
Greek minister warns of 'catastrophe' if parliamentary revolt leads to austerity bill being blocked - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8600703/Greek-minister-warns-of-catastrophe-if-parliamentary-revolt-leads-to-austerity-bill-being-blocked.html
A Greek debt buyback would avoid the dreaded default - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8599992/A-Greek-debt-buyback-would-avoid-the-dreaded-default.html
China is building a better future for all - The Telegraph by Wen Jiabao
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8601734/China-is-building-a-better-future-for-all.html
Greek Debt Talks Widen - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304314404576411730186291402.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Greek Bond Buybacks Discussed at Meeting - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303627104576411891577670756.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Gold Can't Hold $1,500 - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304447804576411391861041346.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hps_LEFTTopWhatNews
Euro Makes Gains on Greek Hopes - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304447804576410682053899822.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hps_sections_markets
U.K. Only Semi-Detached From Euro Zone's Troubles - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304447804576411690944730546.html
Dollar seen losing global reserve status - The WSJ -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/23183a78-a0c6-11e0-b14e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1QQh2MtL3
EU ‘Brady bonds’ plan for Greece - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7c1a1f94-a0a6-11e0-b14e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1QQh2MtL3
Give Greece time to prove it can do the job - The FT - By George Papaconstantinou
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fc16c638-a0f2-11e0-adae-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1QQh2MtL3
Obama Targets $72 Billion Business Tax Break - Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-27/obama-targets-72-billion-business-tax-break-republicans-balk.html
Technical’s and comments
Euro: The next level of key resistance is 1.4380 to 1.44, with 2 week high of 1.4496 as the big level to the upside for now. To the downside we have followed by 1.4230 and key support at 1.4150. This pair is very choppy and not my favorite market to trade at the moment. If I had to pick direction I would still look to sell rallies.
Cable: Prefer to sell rallies in this pair at the moment with 1.6040 as the first level that I see as a potential entry level.
USDJPY: Very tight range over the last sessions. I remain longer term bearish on the JPY as the fundamental factors in Japan looks ugly, with huge public debt and unfavorable demographics going forward. However the risk off over the last days has taken us below 80 again. Not sure if we see any intervention unless the move picks up in speed and magnitude. Buy on dips for the brave.
Swissy: I expect the CHF to underperform Euro as the 1.20 EURCHF looks very rich in CHF terms. So maybe better to play Euro is negative on USD. Swissy is bearish below 0.8500 for now, looking for 0.8300
AUDUSD: Buying on dips above 1.04 looks the most interesting for now. Look out for any stock market sell off as a trigger to get out of longs.
USDCAD: Still favor selling rallies for a move back below 0.9700. If we break above 0.9900 this view would be wrong I reckon.
S&P Future (ES): Good upside momentum yesterday and this morning, but I reckon we must see a daily close above 1294 to really get bullish. A daily close above 1294 would give us a higher low and higher high on the daily chart, which should open for more upside. Key support is 1260, followed by 1250 now.
Gold: Looks interesting to be long above 1490 with relatively tight stop.
Crude oil: Buy on dips above 89.50 I reckon for now and looking for a rally towards the resistance at 93.80 near term. Need to see a daily close above 95.50 to open for an extension to 98.50 near term. A daily close below 89.50 would be negative and would not hold long if we break below this level.
________________________________________
Risk Warning: Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Avantage Financial GmbH with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Regardless of the account type you choose, there are risks inherent in trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice. Prices can go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Trading recap Monday 27th of June
The S&P500 put in a nice rally Monday to get above the key 1277 resistance, which forced me to hedge som delta on the 1270 short calls I have on for expiration 30 June. I also bot back the 1300 calls that I sold last week for a gain of 610 USD, pretty decent. Why I bot them back? Because they were trading for 0.90 per contract = 45 USD per contract. I see no point keeping them on in case we got a rally to make another 45 USD per contract. That would be bad risk management in my opinion. I also sold 2 contracts of the 1280 calls for expiration 30 June, receiving 8 points per contract = 800. My view is that unless we rally above 1294, the next leg is down, therefore I want to be short delta to express a bearish bias that I hedge if I am wrong of course. Since the market is so jumpy at the moment it feels better to have the options structure than a pure short futures position. As this options gives me a bit more flexibility.
Otherwise I did one crude long, buying in below 90 USD level that has been support a few times before, made 35 cents on that long = 175 USD.
I will close out the Euro positions from Friday on Tuesday.
The entire trading log can be found here
Good luck
Otherwise I did one crude long, buying in below 90 USD level that has been support a few times before, made 35 cents on that long = 175 USD.
I will close out the Euro positions from Friday on Tuesday.
The entire trading log can be found here
Good luck
fredag 24. juni 2011
Recap Friday 24th of June
The week overall turned out very nice and the best so far, + 5225 USD (5,225%), very good indeed. The major contributor was the crude oil structure that took in 4017.50 USD.
See complete trading log
Very choppy day again as the headline continue to dominate the markets. As mentioned in the mid-day update the IFO release sent the Euro back up after overnight weakness. Only to fall back down on various comments and halting of Unicredit and Intesa stocks in Milano after they fell more than 3%.
The choppyness in the Euro forces us to hedge back and forth and pretty much took out the profit potential and I was excersised on the 1.42 puts, which has given me long 2 futures at 1.42. I am short mini Euro futures to hedge this exposure, total of 4 mini futures, so they are fully hedged. I will close all this positions on Monday and then add up the total for the structure.
The S&P 500 emini structure I had on turned out pretty well. I did get thrown out a bit on the spike higher on the US GDP release today, which was slightly better than last estimate. However I was able to get back in short pretty quick, so it had limited impact.
I did add a gold structure today, long 2 futures and short 2 1520 August calls. One of the futures I had on since yesterday. I expect to see a rebound in gold start of next week. If I am wrong I will sell out the futures and keep the calls on and probably sell some puts to create a short strangle.
Have a nice weekend
See complete trading log
Very choppy day again as the headline continue to dominate the markets. As mentioned in the mid-day update the IFO release sent the Euro back up after overnight weakness. Only to fall back down on various comments and halting of Unicredit and Intesa stocks in Milano after they fell more than 3%.
The choppyness in the Euro forces us to hedge back and forth and pretty much took out the profit potential and I was excersised on the 1.42 puts, which has given me long 2 futures at 1.42. I am short mini Euro futures to hedge this exposure, total of 4 mini futures, so they are fully hedged. I will close all this positions on Monday and then add up the total for the structure.
The S&P 500 emini structure I had on turned out pretty well. I did get thrown out a bit on the spike higher on the US GDP release today, which was slightly better than last estimate. However I was able to get back in short pretty quick, so it had limited impact.
I did add a gold structure today, long 2 futures and short 2 1520 August calls. One of the futures I had on since yesterday. I expect to see a rebound in gold start of next week. If I am wrong I will sell out the futures and keep the calls on and probably sell some puts to create a short strangle.
Have a nice weekend
Trading log update 13:20 CET Friday 24 June
The trading log have been updated to reflect the latest changes.
The market has been very jumpy this morning and pretty much headline drive once again.
The Euro had a weak tone overnight, then a stronger than expected IFO sent it pretty much 90 pips straight up. Then news out of Italy that Unicredit and Intesa has been suspended after their shares falling about 3%. In addition ECB's Paramo comments that recovery is subject to high uncertainty.
This market climate is a bit more jumpy than I prefer, so I will likely make further adjustements especially to the S&P emini structure as we approach the US market open.
Link to trading log: here
Good luck
The market has been very jumpy this morning and pretty much headline drive once again.
The Euro had a weak tone overnight, then a stronger than expected IFO sent it pretty much 90 pips straight up. Then news out of Italy that Unicredit and Intesa has been suspended after their shares falling about 3%. In addition ECB's Paramo comments that recovery is subject to high uncertainty.
This market climate is a bit more jumpy than I prefer, so I will likely make further adjustements especially to the S&P emini structure as we approach the US market open.
Link to trading log: here
Good luck
torsdag 23. juni 2011
Recap Thursday 23rd of June
It was a very volatile and once more news driven session. We had the intial weakness that I pointed out in the report yesterday, which saw us gap lower at the open in the S&P 500 by 12.75 points. Pretty much risk off in the morning as we saw Crude oil take a bit hit on news that US will release 60 million barrels of strategic reserves to help the tight supplies. Crude traded below 90 USD briefly. I reckon the market reaction is a bit overdone given the fact that US is consuming about 25 million barrels per day. Anyway, the market is always right and down the Euro went as well. Corn also opened about 30 points down, but had a huge turn around and actually closing up a few points. That is a crazy comeback. We still have the key USDA release 30th of June, keep that i mind. Could see a big move on that release.
Trading wise I did a fair amount of trades, please check out the log to see all the trades, today's trades have been marked in red.
trading log
The most important for today was that I closed the Crude oil structure that I have had on for about a week and a half, making 4017,50 USD on that one, very nice.
Trading wise I did a fair amount of trades, please check out the log to see all the trades, today's trades have been marked in red.
trading log
The most important for today was that I closed the Crude oil structure that I have had on for about a week and a half, making 4017,50 USD on that one, very nice.
Trading log update 19:20 CET Thursday 23 June
Ok, the crude structure have now been closed out for a very decent 4017,50 USD profit. Today's trades have been posted in red.
Trading log
Good luck
Trading log
Good luck
Trading log update 13:20 CET Thursday 23 June
Good day.
I have updated the trading log with today's trades made so far. So you have a clear overview what positions are open going into the US open.
Good luck
Trading log
I have updated the trading log with today's trades made so far. So you have a clear overview what positions are open going into the US open.
Good luck
Trading log
onsdag 22. juni 2011
Trading recap for the Twitter trades Wednesday 22nd of June
The FOMC came in pretty much as expected and it looks like the rally in risk seen over the last 4 sessions is about to reverse. Reason is that several markets failed at some key resistance levels. S&P 500 futures failed at the 1293 level that I mentioned in the report, which should open for a least 1275. Crude oil failed to take out 96 resistance. Euro failed at 1.4450. So several indicators point to a dip over the next few sessions.
Trading wise I did some minor adjustments in the Crude structure, sold one additional 96 AUG call for 2.30 USD. I also put on a Corn structure, long 2x futures and short 6x 730 Aug calls. No change in the Euro structure, looking to hold that to expiration now unless my stop at 1.4420 in the Sep mini futures is taken out. Ideally we would expire around 1.42 on Friday.
Sold 2x 1300 end of month calls in the S&P 500 emini, receiving 700 USD in total.
Will be interesting to see if we break lower tomorrow as I expect, I am at least positioned for it.
You can see the complete trading log here: trading log
Good luck
Trading wise I did some minor adjustments in the Crude structure, sold one additional 96 AUG call for 2.30 USD. I also put on a Corn structure, long 2x futures and short 6x 730 Aug calls. No change in the Euro structure, looking to hold that to expiration now unless my stop at 1.4420 in the Sep mini futures is taken out. Ideally we would expire around 1.42 on Friday.
Sold 2x 1300 end of month calls in the S&P 500 emini, receiving 700 USD in total.
Will be interesting to see if we break lower tomorrow as I expect, I am at least positioned for it.
You can see the complete trading log here: trading log
Good luck
Market Report Tuesday 22nd of June
You can see the full pdf format at this link: market report
Running a bit late on the report today, so will keep it short and sweet.
FOMC just held rates unchanged and signaled that rates will remain low for long, QE2 will expire at the end of the month, but they will reinvest the interest received from the holdings. Pretty much as expected and Bernanke will hold the press conference shortly. We have seen very little market reaction so far to the release.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-22/federal-reserve-to-maintain-record-stimulus-after-ending-asset-purchases.html
Bank of England minutes out earlier was pretty dovish and they signaled that they might need to provide more stimuli in form of bond purchases to help the recovery. GBP sold off pretty hard on the release and it now looks like we will test the 1.6050 key support near term.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-22/boe-voted-7-2-for-unchanged-rate-amid-pressure-for-further-bond-purchases.html
Corn trading limit down at the moment and getting crushed on more fund selling. Soybeans holding up a bit better, but we are now below the key support levels that looked attractive to get long, so be careful. The market is awaiting the USDA acreage report on 30th of June, which is the most important release this time of the year. I expect to see a rather large move on the release.
DOE crude inventories showed smaller than expected stockpiles, which is sending Crude oil futures higher.
We have key resistance at 95.50 that is the key level that we need to see a daily close above to open for move towards 98.50.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-22/crude-oil-fluctuates-in-new-york-before-u-s-supply-report-fomc-meeting.html
Looking at a few interesting points in the markets trading wise:
- Thursday’s low in the S&P futures at 1252 should hold near term and I look for a move to 1293 and possibly 1303. We have already reached 1293, so the next level is 1303 now. I expect to see sellers around 1293, so depends how the price action turns out in the area.
- Crude is a buy on dips above 91.50 I reckon for a move back towards 95.50, I said earlier this week (pretty much spot on)
- USDCAD is approaching the upper end of the recent range and looks like a sell towards 0.9850. Looking for a move back below 0.9700. Getting to a low of 0.9711 today, looking for 0.9650 now.
- Silver trading sideways over the last month, range 32.75 to 38.76.
- Gold is a buy towards 1530 today.
Technical’s and comments
Euro: The next level of key resistance is 1.4380 to 1.44, with last week’s high of 1.4496 as the big level to the upside for now. To the downside we have 1.4300, followed by 1.4250 and key support at 1.4150. This pair is very choppy and not my favorite market to trade at the moment. If I had to pick direction I would still look to sell rallies.
Cable: Key support at 1.6050 and resistance up at 1.6265. Still looks like a sell on rallies towards 1.6265. Selling towards 1.6265 worked out really well, down at 1.6110 now.
USDJPY: Very tight range over the last sessions. I remain longer term bearish on the JPY as the fundamental factors in Japan looks ugly, with huge public debt and unfavorable demographics going forward. However the risk off over the last days has taken us below 80 again. Not sure if we see any intervention unless the move picks up in speed and magnitude. Buy on dips for the brave.
Swissy: I expect the CHF to underperform Euro as the 1.20 EURCHF looks very rich in CHF terms. So maybe better to play Euro is negative on USD. Swissy is bearish below 0.8500 for now, looking for 0.8300
AUDUSD: RBA signaled that they were in no hurry to raise rates, but still not that much downside action. Buying dips towards 1.0550 looks the most attractive for now.
USDCAD: Still favor selling rallies for a move back below 0.9700. If we break above 0.9900 this view would be wrong I reckon.
S&P Future (ES): Expect the low from Thursday last week at 1252 to hold and we are testing the key resitance at 1293 now that we need to get above to extend the rally to 1303. If we fail here at 1293, we are heading lower again towards 1275 or so I reckon.
Gold: Next interesting level to re buy is around the 1530 level. So, I am waiting for lower level to get involved.
Crude oil: Buy on dips above 91.50 I reckon for now and looking for a rally towards the resistance at 95.50. Need to see a daily close above 95.50 to open for a extension to 98.50 near term. We have minor resistance at 96.30 as well.
________________________________________
Risk Warning: Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Avantage Financial GmbH with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Regardless of the account type you choose, there are risks inherent in trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice. Prices can go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Running a bit late on the report today, so will keep it short and sweet.
FOMC just held rates unchanged and signaled that rates will remain low for long, QE2 will expire at the end of the month, but they will reinvest the interest received from the holdings. Pretty much as expected and Bernanke will hold the press conference shortly. We have seen very little market reaction so far to the release.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-22/federal-reserve-to-maintain-record-stimulus-after-ending-asset-purchases.html
Bank of England minutes out earlier was pretty dovish and they signaled that they might need to provide more stimuli in form of bond purchases to help the recovery. GBP sold off pretty hard on the release and it now looks like we will test the 1.6050 key support near term.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-22/boe-voted-7-2-for-unchanged-rate-amid-pressure-for-further-bond-purchases.html
Corn trading limit down at the moment and getting crushed on more fund selling. Soybeans holding up a bit better, but we are now below the key support levels that looked attractive to get long, so be careful. The market is awaiting the USDA acreage report on 30th of June, which is the most important release this time of the year. I expect to see a rather large move on the release.
DOE crude inventories showed smaller than expected stockpiles, which is sending Crude oil futures higher.
We have key resistance at 95.50 that is the key level that we need to see a daily close above to open for move towards 98.50.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-22/crude-oil-fluctuates-in-new-york-before-u-s-supply-report-fomc-meeting.html
Looking at a few interesting points in the markets trading wise:
- Thursday’s low in the S&P futures at 1252 should hold near term and I look for a move to 1293 and possibly 1303. We have already reached 1293, so the next level is 1303 now. I expect to see sellers around 1293, so depends how the price action turns out in the area.
- Crude is a buy on dips above 91.50 I reckon for a move back towards 95.50, I said earlier this week (pretty much spot on)
- USDCAD is approaching the upper end of the recent range and looks like a sell towards 0.9850. Looking for a move back below 0.9700. Getting to a low of 0.9711 today, looking for 0.9650 now.
- Silver trading sideways over the last month, range 32.75 to 38.76.
- Gold is a buy towards 1530 today.
Technical’s and comments
Euro: The next level of key resistance is 1.4380 to 1.44, with last week’s high of 1.4496 as the big level to the upside for now. To the downside we have 1.4300, followed by 1.4250 and key support at 1.4150. This pair is very choppy and not my favorite market to trade at the moment. If I had to pick direction I would still look to sell rallies.
Cable: Key support at 1.6050 and resistance up at 1.6265. Still looks like a sell on rallies towards 1.6265. Selling towards 1.6265 worked out really well, down at 1.6110 now.
USDJPY: Very tight range over the last sessions. I remain longer term bearish on the JPY as the fundamental factors in Japan looks ugly, with huge public debt and unfavorable demographics going forward. However the risk off over the last days has taken us below 80 again. Not sure if we see any intervention unless the move picks up in speed and magnitude. Buy on dips for the brave.
Swissy: I expect the CHF to underperform Euro as the 1.20 EURCHF looks very rich in CHF terms. So maybe better to play Euro is negative on USD. Swissy is bearish below 0.8500 for now, looking for 0.8300
AUDUSD: RBA signaled that they were in no hurry to raise rates, but still not that much downside action. Buying dips towards 1.0550 looks the most attractive for now.
USDCAD: Still favor selling rallies for a move back below 0.9700. If we break above 0.9900 this view would be wrong I reckon.
S&P Future (ES): Expect the low from Thursday last week at 1252 to hold and we are testing the key resitance at 1293 now that we need to get above to extend the rally to 1303. If we fail here at 1293, we are heading lower again towards 1275 or so I reckon.
Gold: Next interesting level to re buy is around the 1530 level. So, I am waiting for lower level to get involved.
Crude oil: Buy on dips above 91.50 I reckon for now and looking for a rally towards the resistance at 95.50. Need to see a daily close above 95.50 to open for a extension to 98.50 near term. We have minor resistance at 96.30 as well.
________________________________________
Risk Warning: Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Avantage Financial GmbH with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Regardless of the account type you choose, there are risks inherent in trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice. Prices can go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
tirsdag 21. juni 2011
Trading recap for the Twitter trades Tuesday 21st of June
S&P has moved firmly above last week's high at 1287 and testing 1293 this very momenty. There is resistance around the 1293 to 1295 level and I would be surprised if we go higher than this level today, especially given the light volume we are seeing. I figure the larger risk is for a move back lower near term. I have added a put structure to reflect this view selling 1280 put early in the session and will continue to trade short in the futures to hedge delta.
Corn and Soybeans gave up early gains to close in the lower to middle part of the daily ranges. I am still looking to buy Crude on dips, follwing the break above the 2 day high at 94.38 overnight and looking for a move back to 95.50 to 96 over the next few sessions. Although the price action today looks quite heavy and not able to hold above 93.70 on the pullback and diping below 93 earlier. If we close below 93.70 I guess we are looking to go lower tomorrow early on at least.
Added short calls in Aug Crude options at 96 strike, selling 2x contracts for 2 USD. Did some smaller adjustments in the Euro options structure.
We have the Greek no confidence vote tonight and FOMC tomorrow, so there is plenty of unknown event risk.
Click this link to see all updates:
Trading log
Corn and Soybeans gave up early gains to close in the lower to middle part of the daily ranges. I am still looking to buy Crude on dips, follwing the break above the 2 day high at 94.38 overnight and looking for a move back to 95.50 to 96 over the next few sessions. Although the price action today looks quite heavy and not able to hold above 93.70 on the pullback and diping below 93 earlier. If we close below 93.70 I guess we are looking to go lower tomorrow early on at least.
Added short calls in Aug Crude options at 96 strike, selling 2x contracts for 2 USD. Did some smaller adjustments in the Euro options structure.
We have the Greek no confidence vote tonight and FOMC tomorrow, so there is plenty of unknown event risk.
Click this link to see all updates:
Trading log
Market Report Tuesday 21st of June
To see the real pdf file, where you can click on all the links, click here:
Pdf file
We have some event risk over the next few sessions with the Greece no confident vote tonight at 23:59 CET and FOMC tomorrow. Overnight volatility in the Euro overnight options reflects this and trading around 18.5% for at the money option. The volatility for the 2 days options, which includes the FOMC is also trading around the same volatility levels for the at the money strikes. Headlines out of Greece continue to dominate the market sentiment and I found this article a bit interesting:
Each Eurozone Household Will Guarantee €1,450 Of Greek Debt By 2014:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/each-eurozone-household-will-guarantee-%E2%82%AC1450-greek-debt-2014
Fitch out saying than any debt exchange or voluntary rollover of the Greek debt would be a default in their eyes. Fitch also said that US would be put on negative watch if US fail to raise the debt ceiling by August 2nd deadline.
Fitch sees risk of Greece, U.S. debt defaults - Reuter -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/21/us-fitch-usa-debt-idUSTRE75K0AP20110621?feedType=RSS&dlvrit=56943
The S&P 500 futures are trading higher in the pre-market, up 6.75 points at 1280.25, meaning we are above that gap at 1277.50 that I mentioned as my short term upside objective in the report the last few days. I still think the low from Thursday at 1252 should hold near term. We have falling resistance coming in at 1283 and then last week’s high at 1287 as reference points to the upside. To the downside the yesterday’s low at 1261.25 is a level that should not be broken if we are going to see more near term upside.
The Euro managed to break above the 1.4350 resistance level in thin Asia trading as stops were triggered up to 1.4370. I guess this reminds us that the US situation is also pretty horrible and the choppy price action continues. I think there are other more interesting markets to trade at the moment to be honest. We have the minutes out of Bank of England tomorrow at 10:30, which might be good to keep in mind if trading GBP today. Technically the key resistance at 1.6265 is the level on the upside to watch as any break above this level could see short squeeze.
Both Soybeans and Corn found support in the lower end of the trading range yesterday and I fancy a move higher. The market is awaiting the USDA acreage report on 30th of June, which is the most important release this time of the year. I expect to see a rather large move on the release.
Another thing I would like to mention is that Crude is in a seasonal strong month and both OPEC and DOE estimates point to solid demand going forward. So unless the financial markets fall apart over Greece I think we will be back above 100 USD per barrel fairly quickly.
Looking at a few interesting points in the markets trading wise:
- Thursday’s low in the S&P futures at 1252 should hold near term and I look for a move to close the gap at 1277.50. Looks like we will open above this level today. Next key resistance is 1283 followed by 1287(last week’s high).
- Crude is a buy on dips above 91.50 I reckon for a move back towards 95.50
- USDCAD is approaching the upper end of the recent range and looks like a sell towards 0.9850. Looking for a move back below 0.9700.
- Silver trading sideways over the last month, range 32.75 to 38.76.
- Gold is a buy towards 1530 today.
- Corn and Soybeans are at the lower end of the recent range. Looking for a move higher in both markets this week. Corn upside target is 730 and 1360 for Soybeans. Keep in mind that holding corn or soybeans over the USDA acreage report released at 30th of June could be very risky.
Today’s Calendar (CET):
- 14:50 EU Van Rompuy meets EU Juncker in Luxembourg
- 16:00 US Existing Homes Sales
- 19:00 IMF Lipsky speaks in Berlin
- 19:00 SNB Hildebrand speaks in Zurich
- 23:59 Confidence vote in Greece
RBA Weighs European Debt Crisis, Mining-Fueled Inflation in Holding Rates - BBG -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-21/rba-weighs-european-debt-crisis-mining-fueled-inflation-in-holding-rates.html
As Politicians Debate, Market Is Calling the Shots on Greece - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304070104576397842101344616.html?mod=WSJASIA_newsreel_markets
IMF Not Negotiating New Greek Bailout: Lipsky- Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-20/lipsky-says-imf-not-negotiating-new-greek-bailout-as-it-weighs-aid-payment.html
Demand for financial services is recovering - The Times - by Anatole Kaletsky
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/ceo-summit/article3068415.ece
Europe better have a Plan B to tackle Greek contagion - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8585491/Europe-better-have-a-Plan-B-to-tackle-Greek-contagion.html
How much could Britain pay to bail-out Greece? - Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8586852/How-much-could-Britain-pay-to-bail-out-Greece.html
Germany provides loan guarantees to prop up Greece - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8587679/Germany-provides-loan-guarantees-to-prop-up-Greece.html
EU Links Greece Aid to Budget Cuts - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303936704576397471366290148.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Foster's rejects $9.5b bid from SABMiller - The SMH -
http://www.smh.com.au/business/fosters-rejects-95b-bid-from-sabmiller-20110621-1gcg6.html#ixzz1PrdVMZxB
The IMF Warns Crisis Is Threat to Broad Upturn - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303936704576397470527710588.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Delaying Tactics No Help in Greek Tragedy - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303936704576397713297465414.html
How the Greek debt crisis could slam U.S. savers - The WSJ -
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-greek-debt-crisis-could-slam-us-savers-2011-06-20
Greece Will Default, But Not Yet - The WSJ -
http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/06/20/greece-will-default-but-not-yet/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=thesource
Political union cannot fix the euro - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7944de54-9b69-11e0-bbc6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1PliDoQ3j
Savour the sweet scent of Germany’s success - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/90a78066-9b8b-11e0-98f2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1PliDoQ3j
Trades reveal China shift from dollar - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2285148c-9b6c-11e0-bbc6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1PliDoQ3j
Cool reception for Greek debt plan - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b1ca2b84-9b65-11e0-bbc6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1PliDoQ3j
Papandreou Faces Confidence Vote That May Decide Greece’s Fate - Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-20/papandreou-confidence-vote-looms-today-as-world-waits-for-delay-or-default.html
IMF Not Negotiating New Greek Bailout: Lipsky - Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-20/lipsky-says-imf-not-negotiating-new-greek-bailout-as-it-weighs-aid-payment.html
Cameron to Europe: not one penny more - The Times -
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/ceo-summit/article3068867.ece
Technical’s and comments
Euro: The next level of key resistance is 1.4380 to 1.44, with last week’s high of 1.4496 as the big level to the upside for now. To the downside we have 1.4300, followed by 1.4250 and key support at 1.4150. This pair is very choppy and not my favorite market to trade at the moment. If I had to pick direction I would still look to sell rallies.
Cable: Key support at 1.6050 and resistance up at 1.6265. Still looks like a sell on rallies towards 1.6265.
USDJPY: Very tight range over the last sessions. I remain longer term bearish on the JPY as the fundamental factors in Japan looks ugly, with huge public debt and unfavorable demographics going forward. However the risk off over the last days has taken us below 80 again. Not sure if we see any intervention unless the move picks up in speed and magnitude. Buy on dips for the brave.
Swissy: I expect the CHF to underperform Euro as the 1.20 EURCHF looks very rich in CHF terms. So maybe better to play Euro is negative on USD. Swissy is bearish below 0.8500 for now, looking for 0.8300
AUDUSD: RBA signaled that they were in no hurry to raise rates, but still not that much downside action. Buying dips towards 1.0550 looks the most attractive for now.
USDCAD: Still favor selling rallies for a move back below 0.9700. If we break above 0.9900 this view would be wrong I reckon.
S&P Future (ES): Expect the low from Thursday last week at 1252 to hold and a move to close the gap at 1277.50 near term and it looks like we will open above that 1277 level today. Next upside level is then falling resistance at 1283, followed by the key pinot level at 1287 (last week’s high). We have support at 1261.50 (Friday low) that I would not like to see it below, if we are going to rally.
Gold: Next interesting level to re buy is around the 1530 level. So, I am waiting for lower level to get involved.
Crude oil: Buy on dips above 91.50 I reckon for now and looking for a rally towards the resistance at 95.50.
________________________________________
Risk Warning: Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Avantage Financial GmbH with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Regardless of the account type you choose, there are risks inherent in trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice. Prices can go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Pdf file
We have some event risk over the next few sessions with the Greece no confident vote tonight at 23:59 CET and FOMC tomorrow. Overnight volatility in the Euro overnight options reflects this and trading around 18.5% for at the money option. The volatility for the 2 days options, which includes the FOMC is also trading around the same volatility levels for the at the money strikes. Headlines out of Greece continue to dominate the market sentiment and I found this article a bit interesting:
Each Eurozone Household Will Guarantee €1,450 Of Greek Debt By 2014:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/each-eurozone-household-will-guarantee-%E2%82%AC1450-greek-debt-2014
Fitch out saying than any debt exchange or voluntary rollover of the Greek debt would be a default in their eyes. Fitch also said that US would be put on negative watch if US fail to raise the debt ceiling by August 2nd deadline.
Fitch sees risk of Greece, U.S. debt defaults - Reuter -
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/21/us-fitch-usa-debt-idUSTRE75K0AP20110621?feedType=RSS&dlvrit=56943
The S&P 500 futures are trading higher in the pre-market, up 6.75 points at 1280.25, meaning we are above that gap at 1277.50 that I mentioned as my short term upside objective in the report the last few days. I still think the low from Thursday at 1252 should hold near term. We have falling resistance coming in at 1283 and then last week’s high at 1287 as reference points to the upside. To the downside the yesterday’s low at 1261.25 is a level that should not be broken if we are going to see more near term upside.
The Euro managed to break above the 1.4350 resistance level in thin Asia trading as stops were triggered up to 1.4370. I guess this reminds us that the US situation is also pretty horrible and the choppy price action continues. I think there are other more interesting markets to trade at the moment to be honest. We have the minutes out of Bank of England tomorrow at 10:30, which might be good to keep in mind if trading GBP today. Technically the key resistance at 1.6265 is the level on the upside to watch as any break above this level could see short squeeze.
Both Soybeans and Corn found support in the lower end of the trading range yesterday and I fancy a move higher. The market is awaiting the USDA acreage report on 30th of June, which is the most important release this time of the year. I expect to see a rather large move on the release.
Another thing I would like to mention is that Crude is in a seasonal strong month and both OPEC and DOE estimates point to solid demand going forward. So unless the financial markets fall apart over Greece I think we will be back above 100 USD per barrel fairly quickly.
Looking at a few interesting points in the markets trading wise:
- Thursday’s low in the S&P futures at 1252 should hold near term and I look for a move to close the gap at 1277.50. Looks like we will open above this level today. Next key resistance is 1283 followed by 1287(last week’s high).
- Crude is a buy on dips above 91.50 I reckon for a move back towards 95.50
- USDCAD is approaching the upper end of the recent range and looks like a sell towards 0.9850. Looking for a move back below 0.9700.
- Silver trading sideways over the last month, range 32.75 to 38.76.
- Gold is a buy towards 1530 today.
- Corn and Soybeans are at the lower end of the recent range. Looking for a move higher in both markets this week. Corn upside target is 730 and 1360 for Soybeans. Keep in mind that holding corn or soybeans over the USDA acreage report released at 30th of June could be very risky.
Today’s Calendar (CET):
- 14:50 EU Van Rompuy meets EU Juncker in Luxembourg
- 16:00 US Existing Homes Sales
- 19:00 IMF Lipsky speaks in Berlin
- 19:00 SNB Hildebrand speaks in Zurich
- 23:59 Confidence vote in Greece
RBA Weighs European Debt Crisis, Mining-Fueled Inflation in Holding Rates - BBG -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-21/rba-weighs-european-debt-crisis-mining-fueled-inflation-in-holding-rates.html
As Politicians Debate, Market Is Calling the Shots on Greece - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304070104576397842101344616.html?mod=WSJASIA_newsreel_markets
IMF Not Negotiating New Greek Bailout: Lipsky- Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-20/lipsky-says-imf-not-negotiating-new-greek-bailout-as-it-weighs-aid-payment.html
Demand for financial services is recovering - The Times - by Anatole Kaletsky
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/ceo-summit/article3068415.ece
Europe better have a Plan B to tackle Greek contagion - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8585491/Europe-better-have-a-Plan-B-to-tackle-Greek-contagion.html
How much could Britain pay to bail-out Greece? - Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8586852/How-much-could-Britain-pay-to-bail-out-Greece.html
Germany provides loan guarantees to prop up Greece - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8587679/Germany-provides-loan-guarantees-to-prop-up-Greece.html
EU Links Greece Aid to Budget Cuts - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303936704576397471366290148.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Foster's rejects $9.5b bid from SABMiller - The SMH -
http://www.smh.com.au/business/fosters-rejects-95b-bid-from-sabmiller-20110621-1gcg6.html#ixzz1PrdVMZxB
The IMF Warns Crisis Is Threat to Broad Upturn - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303936704576397470527710588.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories
Delaying Tactics No Help in Greek Tragedy - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303936704576397713297465414.html
How the Greek debt crisis could slam U.S. savers - The WSJ -
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-greek-debt-crisis-could-slam-us-savers-2011-06-20
Greece Will Default, But Not Yet - The WSJ -
http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/06/20/greece-will-default-but-not-yet/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=thesource
Political union cannot fix the euro - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7944de54-9b69-11e0-bbc6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1PliDoQ3j
Savour the sweet scent of Germany’s success - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/90a78066-9b8b-11e0-98f2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1PliDoQ3j
Trades reveal China shift from dollar - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2285148c-9b6c-11e0-bbc6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1PliDoQ3j
Cool reception for Greek debt plan - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b1ca2b84-9b65-11e0-bbc6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1PliDoQ3j
Papandreou Faces Confidence Vote That May Decide Greece’s Fate - Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-20/papandreou-confidence-vote-looms-today-as-world-waits-for-delay-or-default.html
IMF Not Negotiating New Greek Bailout: Lipsky - Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-20/lipsky-says-imf-not-negotiating-new-greek-bailout-as-it-weighs-aid-payment.html
Cameron to Europe: not one penny more - The Times -
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/ceo-summit/article3068867.ece
Technical’s and comments
Euro: The next level of key resistance is 1.4380 to 1.44, with last week’s high of 1.4496 as the big level to the upside for now. To the downside we have 1.4300, followed by 1.4250 and key support at 1.4150. This pair is very choppy and not my favorite market to trade at the moment. If I had to pick direction I would still look to sell rallies.
Cable: Key support at 1.6050 and resistance up at 1.6265. Still looks like a sell on rallies towards 1.6265.
USDJPY: Very tight range over the last sessions. I remain longer term bearish on the JPY as the fundamental factors in Japan looks ugly, with huge public debt and unfavorable demographics going forward. However the risk off over the last days has taken us below 80 again. Not sure if we see any intervention unless the move picks up in speed and magnitude. Buy on dips for the brave.
Swissy: I expect the CHF to underperform Euro as the 1.20 EURCHF looks very rich in CHF terms. So maybe better to play Euro is negative on USD. Swissy is bearish below 0.8500 for now, looking for 0.8300
AUDUSD: RBA signaled that they were in no hurry to raise rates, but still not that much downside action. Buying dips towards 1.0550 looks the most attractive for now.
USDCAD: Still favor selling rallies for a move back below 0.9700. If we break above 0.9900 this view would be wrong I reckon.
S&P Future (ES): Expect the low from Thursday last week at 1252 to hold and a move to close the gap at 1277.50 near term and it looks like we will open above that 1277 level today. Next upside level is then falling resistance at 1283, followed by the key pinot level at 1287 (last week’s high). We have support at 1261.50 (Friday low) that I would not like to see it below, if we are going to rally.
Gold: Next interesting level to re buy is around the 1530 level. So, I am waiting for lower level to get involved.
Crude oil: Buy on dips above 91.50 I reckon for now and looking for a rally towards the resistance at 95.50.
________________________________________
Risk Warning: Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Avantage Financial GmbH with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Regardless of the account type you choose, there are risks inherent in trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice. Prices can go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
mandag 20. juni 2011
Market Report Monday 20th of June
you can see the report in the real format at this link:
market report
The market continues to be dominated by news headlines and specifically Greece is the major focal point. I have argued for some time that we will likely see a default within Europe, structured or an outright collapse over the next few years. In my view a restructuring of the debt would also be a default technically, because it would mean that Greece cannot pay the obligations. Seems like the ECB and Euro zone is obsessed with saving Greece. Given that Greece is a small player in Euro zone, it looks a bit overdone in my view. It would probably been much healthier for the long run if Greece had been allowed to default last year. I just don’t see how Greece is going to have any chance to repay the debt they are accumulating at the moment. The Greek debt issues looks to drag out for quite some time and keep any eye on any headlines out on the matter throughout the week. The big issue seems like that Greece much find domestic support and unite behind the required spending cuts. So a bit part of the solution lies in the Greek political arena. We have a no confidence vote this week (midnight Tuesday) and budget vote next week. Those are key events.
We have the FOMC decision on Wednesday, which will be a very important event and will give us more clues about the thinking with regards to stimulus and more.
S&P 500 futures traded to a low at 1252 last week (Thursday) and that low has since held. Short term I am looking for a bounce to fill the gap at 1277.50. The overall sentiment seems like selling rallies and the market looks short, maybe a short squeeze is on the cards?
The Euro rally Friday looks a bit overdone to be honest and I think the sell on rallies strategy will work today as well. We have key support down at 1.4150 that I don’t expect to be broken. A break above 1.4350 sees the risk of a short squeeze. The Bank of England minutes is also out this week, which is a major event risk for the GBP this week.
The market has price out any rate hikes for the AUD this year and this has sent the AUD lower last week. Seems like AUD will be driven by risk appetite solely going forward and we have the RBA minutes overnight that is a significant market risk. We also have news out of Russia that the Russian Central Bank will buy AUD, see news story below.
Looking at a few interesting points in the markets trading wise:
- Thursday’s low in the S&P futures at 1252 should hold near term and I look for a move to close the gap at 1277.50
- Crude is a buy on dips above 91.50 I reckon for a move back towards 95.50
- USDCAD is approaching the upper end of the recent range and looks like a sell towards 0.9850
- Silver trading sideways over the last month, range 32.75 to 38.76.
- Gold is a buy towards 1530 today.
- Corn and Soybeans are at the lower end of the recent range. Looking for a move higher in both markets this week.
Today’s Calendar (CET):
- 16.30 Trichet speaks
- 17.30 ECB's Weidmann speaks
- 18.00 ECB's Stark speaks
- 19.50 US treas. sec Geithner speaks
- 03.30 AUD RBA minutes
US budget talks hit tense stage - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ce497392-9a9c-11e0-bab2-00144feab49a.html#axzz1PliDoQ3j
Russians chase the Aussie dollar as its central bank secures 1pc of reserves - The Australian -
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/russians-chase-the-aussie-dollar-as-its-central-bank-secures-1pc-of-reserves/story-e6frg8zx-1226078107256
Japan’s Exports Declined More Than Expected - Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-20/japan-s-exports-declined-more-than-expected.html
Eurozone recession warning after Greece deal - The Independent -
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/eurozone-recession-warning-after-greece-deal-2300027.html
For Treasury Bulls, It's All Good - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304887904576395671059760848.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hps_sections_markets
Merkel faces backlash over Greek deal - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1c68c2d2-9a91-11e0-bab2-00144feab49a,s01=1.html#axzz1PliDoQ3j
IMF warns US, eurozone deficits a threat to stability - The Telegraph _
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8583008/IMF-warns-US-eurozone-deficits-a-threat-to-stability.html
Eurozone delay over Greek rescue risks spooking markets - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8585706/Eurozone-delay-over-Greek-rescue-risks-spooking-markets.html
UK banks abandon eurozone over Greek default fears - The Telegraph - (out on Saturday )
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8584442/UK-banks-abandon-eurozone-over-Greek-default-fears.html
EU Ministers Move to Clear Greek Payout - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303936704576395314159080624.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories
How the Euro Keeps Bears Behind Bars - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304453304576392171770552648.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hps_sections_markets
Spanish Marchers Protest Unemployment, Austerity - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303936704576395592854247606.html
Against the odds, the euro will scrape through - The FT - By Wolfgang Münchau
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/14845d90-9a66-11e0-bab2-00144feab49a.html#axzz1PliDoQ3j
Talks near deal on €12bn aid to Greece - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0a8d87be-9a9b-11e0-bab2-00144feab49a.html#axzz1PliDoQ3j
Boris Johnson: let Greece go bankrupt and leave the euro - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8585704/Boris-Johnson-let-Greece-go-bankrupt-and-leave-the-euro.html
Europe May Withhold Half of Greek Payment - Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-19/europe-may-withhold-half-of-greek-payment.html
Russia to Lower U.S. Debt Holdings - WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303310004576393651050458930.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hps_MIDDLESixthNews
Technical’s and comments
Euro: I see resistance at 1.430 and 1.4350 today and I am looking to sell towards that level. Key support at 1.4150 for now.
Cable: Key support at 1.6050 and resistance up at 1.6250. Still looks like a sell on rallies.
USDJPY: I remain longer term bearish on the JPY as the fundamental factors in Japan looks ugly, with huge public debt and unfavorable demographics going forward. However the risk off over the last days has taken us below 80 again. Not sure if we see any intervention unless the move picks up in speed and magnitude. Buy on dips for the brave.
Swissy: I expect the CHF to underperform Euro as the 1.20 EURCHF looks very rich in CHF terms. So maybe better to play Euro is negative on USD. Swissy is bearish below 0.8500 for now, looking for 0.8300
AUDUSD: Buying dips towards 1.0550 looks the most attractive for now. But keep in mind that we have RBA overnight, risk event.
USDCAD: Still favor selling rallies for a move back below 0.9700. If we break above 0.9900 this view would be wrong I reckon.
S&P Future (ES): Expect the low from Thursday last week at 1252 to hold and a move to close the gap at 1277.50 near term. See resistance at 1275 (Friday high) and support at 1261.50 (Friday low). Seems like market is pretty short, so short squeeze could be triggered if we get above 1278 I reckon.
Gold: Next interesting level to re buy is around the 1530 level. So waiting for lower level to get involved.
Crude oil: Buy on dips above 91.50 I reckon for now and looking for a rally towards the resistance at 95.50.
________________________________________
Risk Warning: Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Avantage Financial GmbH with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Regardless of the account type you choose, there are risks inherent in trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice. Prices can go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
market report
The market continues to be dominated by news headlines and specifically Greece is the major focal point. I have argued for some time that we will likely see a default within Europe, structured or an outright collapse over the next few years. In my view a restructuring of the debt would also be a default technically, because it would mean that Greece cannot pay the obligations. Seems like the ECB and Euro zone is obsessed with saving Greece. Given that Greece is a small player in Euro zone, it looks a bit overdone in my view. It would probably been much healthier for the long run if Greece had been allowed to default last year. I just don’t see how Greece is going to have any chance to repay the debt they are accumulating at the moment. The Greek debt issues looks to drag out for quite some time and keep any eye on any headlines out on the matter throughout the week. The big issue seems like that Greece much find domestic support and unite behind the required spending cuts. So a bit part of the solution lies in the Greek political arena. We have a no confidence vote this week (midnight Tuesday) and budget vote next week. Those are key events.
We have the FOMC decision on Wednesday, which will be a very important event and will give us more clues about the thinking with regards to stimulus and more.
S&P 500 futures traded to a low at 1252 last week (Thursday) and that low has since held. Short term I am looking for a bounce to fill the gap at 1277.50. The overall sentiment seems like selling rallies and the market looks short, maybe a short squeeze is on the cards?
The Euro rally Friday looks a bit overdone to be honest and I think the sell on rallies strategy will work today as well. We have key support down at 1.4150 that I don’t expect to be broken. A break above 1.4350 sees the risk of a short squeeze. The Bank of England minutes is also out this week, which is a major event risk for the GBP this week.
The market has price out any rate hikes for the AUD this year and this has sent the AUD lower last week. Seems like AUD will be driven by risk appetite solely going forward and we have the RBA minutes overnight that is a significant market risk. We also have news out of Russia that the Russian Central Bank will buy AUD, see news story below.
Looking at a few interesting points in the markets trading wise:
- Thursday’s low in the S&P futures at 1252 should hold near term and I look for a move to close the gap at 1277.50
- Crude is a buy on dips above 91.50 I reckon for a move back towards 95.50
- USDCAD is approaching the upper end of the recent range and looks like a sell towards 0.9850
- Silver trading sideways over the last month, range 32.75 to 38.76.
- Gold is a buy towards 1530 today.
- Corn and Soybeans are at the lower end of the recent range. Looking for a move higher in both markets this week.
Today’s Calendar (CET):
- 16.30 Trichet speaks
- 17.30 ECB's Weidmann speaks
- 18.00 ECB's Stark speaks
- 19.50 US treas. sec Geithner speaks
- 03.30 AUD RBA minutes
US budget talks hit tense stage - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ce497392-9a9c-11e0-bab2-00144feab49a.html#axzz1PliDoQ3j
Russians chase the Aussie dollar as its central bank secures 1pc of reserves - The Australian -
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/russians-chase-the-aussie-dollar-as-its-central-bank-secures-1pc-of-reserves/story-e6frg8zx-1226078107256
Japan’s Exports Declined More Than Expected - Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-20/japan-s-exports-declined-more-than-expected.html
Eurozone recession warning after Greece deal - The Independent -
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/eurozone-recession-warning-after-greece-deal-2300027.html
For Treasury Bulls, It's All Good - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304887904576395671059760848.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hps_sections_markets
Merkel faces backlash over Greek deal - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1c68c2d2-9a91-11e0-bab2-00144feab49a,s01=1.html#axzz1PliDoQ3j
IMF warns US, eurozone deficits a threat to stability - The Telegraph _
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8583008/IMF-warns-US-eurozone-deficits-a-threat-to-stability.html
Eurozone delay over Greek rescue risks spooking markets - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8585706/Eurozone-delay-over-Greek-rescue-risks-spooking-markets.html
UK banks abandon eurozone over Greek default fears - The Telegraph - (out on Saturday )
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8584442/UK-banks-abandon-eurozone-over-Greek-default-fears.html
EU Ministers Move to Clear Greek Payout - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303936704576395314159080624.html?mod=WSJEurope_hpp_LEFTTopStories
How the Euro Keeps Bears Behind Bars - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304453304576392171770552648.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hps_sections_markets
Spanish Marchers Protest Unemployment, Austerity - The WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303936704576395592854247606.html
Against the odds, the euro will scrape through - The FT - By Wolfgang Münchau
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/14845d90-9a66-11e0-bab2-00144feab49a.html#axzz1PliDoQ3j
Talks near deal on €12bn aid to Greece - The FT -
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0a8d87be-9a9b-11e0-bab2-00144feab49a.html#axzz1PliDoQ3j
Boris Johnson: let Greece go bankrupt and leave the euro - The Telegraph -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/8585704/Boris-Johnson-let-Greece-go-bankrupt-and-leave-the-euro.html
Europe May Withhold Half of Greek Payment - Bloomberg -
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-19/europe-may-withhold-half-of-greek-payment.html
Russia to Lower U.S. Debt Holdings - WSJ -
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303310004576393651050458930.html?mod=WSJEUROPE_hps_MIDDLESixthNews
Technical’s and comments
Euro: I see resistance at 1.430 and 1.4350 today and I am looking to sell towards that level. Key support at 1.4150 for now.
Cable: Key support at 1.6050 and resistance up at 1.6250. Still looks like a sell on rallies.
USDJPY: I remain longer term bearish on the JPY as the fundamental factors in Japan looks ugly, with huge public debt and unfavorable demographics going forward. However the risk off over the last days has taken us below 80 again. Not sure if we see any intervention unless the move picks up in speed and magnitude. Buy on dips for the brave.
Swissy: I expect the CHF to underperform Euro as the 1.20 EURCHF looks very rich in CHF terms. So maybe better to play Euro is negative on USD. Swissy is bearish below 0.8500 for now, looking for 0.8300
AUDUSD: Buying dips towards 1.0550 looks the most attractive for now. But keep in mind that we have RBA overnight, risk event.
USDCAD: Still favor selling rallies for a move back below 0.9700. If we break above 0.9900 this view would be wrong I reckon.
S&P Future (ES): Expect the low from Thursday last week at 1252 to hold and a move to close the gap at 1277.50 near term. See resistance at 1275 (Friday high) and support at 1261.50 (Friday low). Seems like market is pretty short, so short squeeze could be triggered if we get above 1278 I reckon.
Gold: Next interesting level to re buy is around the 1530 level. So waiting for lower level to get involved.
Crude oil: Buy on dips above 91.50 I reckon for now and looking for a rally towards the resistance at 95.50.
________________________________________
Risk Warning: Any information in this report is based on data considered to be reliable, but no representations or guarantees are made by Avantage Financial GmbH with regard to the accuracy of the data. This information is provided on condition that we accept no responsibility, legal or other for its contents. We, including our directors, officers, employees or publishers, disclaim all liabilities. Any statement constitutes only current opinions, which are subject to change. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed shall be construed to be, or constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any investments mentioned herein. Regardless of the account type you choose, there are risks inherent in trading, including the risk of loss greater than the original investment. The opportunity for profit creates a corresponding risk of loss. Anyone wishing to invest in any of the products mentioned should seek their own financial or professional advice. Prices can go down as well as up. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Trading recap for the Twitter trades Friday 17th of June
Friday ended the week and saw the Euro options structure expire as well as more Crude oil and corn trading.
The Euro structure did end up in -350 USD in total over the week. The choppyness ended up costing too much to hedge basically. Crude trading was another major contributor Friday, producing 5 long trades for a total of 462.50 USD on the day.
Did one Corn trade for 162.50 profit.
The strategy next week is look for more buying on dips in Crude, Corn and Soybeans as we are at major support levels, where I look for a short term bounce.
I still have the Crude oil options structure on with 4x short 98.50 Aug calls and long 2x mini futures. Looking to keeping that structure for a bit longer, will probably make adjustments underway, but in general the strategy to sell calls and trade long in the underlying crude looks good for now.
Complete list of trades can be found here:
http://avantagefinancial.ch/images_up/avantagefinancial.ch/tradinglogtwitter.xlsx
The Euro structure did end up in -350 USD in total over the week. The choppyness ended up costing too much to hedge basically. Crude trading was another major contributor Friday, producing 5 long trades for a total of 462.50 USD on the day.
Did one Corn trade for 162.50 profit.
The strategy next week is look for more buying on dips in Crude, Corn and Soybeans as we are at major support levels, where I look for a short term bounce.
I still have the Crude oil options structure on with 4x short 98.50 Aug calls and long 2x mini futures. Looking to keeping that structure for a bit longer, will probably make adjustments underway, but in general the strategy to sell calls and trade long in the underlying crude looks good for now.
Complete list of trades can be found here:
http://avantagefinancial.ch/images_up/avantagefinancial.ch/tradinglogtwitter.xlsx
Friday 17th of June
More bad news out of Greece and potential downgrade of Italy saw the market sell off into the close once more on Friday. It was not as bearish as previous days sell off and I reckon the low from Thursday is a possible short term low (1252.25). To confirm we need to close above 1275 in the next few sessions. We have a gap up at 1277.50 that I am looking for to get filled the next few sessions. However it still looks like the market is pretty short and willing to sell rallies, which opens for a short squeeze of course, but also more pressure on rallies. Meaning it could be tough to see any larger rally near term. At least until the Greece situation is solved.
torsdag 16. juni 2011
16th of June trade log
Here is the updated trade log over the trades that have been posted on Twitter:
http://avantagefinancial.ch/intraday_service?avantagefinancial_ch=sci52jvh4mculaergl8o9cuhn7
Good day in the futures today, showing 1550 USD gain in the delta one trading, with all trades being winners. Still have a Euro and crude structure that I will keep overnight.
Perfect inside day in Crude for range trading and it treated me well playing the 94,60 to 95.30 range 7 times duting today's session. All were winners, so good thing.
Looking at the Crude oil chart it looks like yesterday could actually be a false break down. We will get the answer tomorrow most likley. The above average volume yesterday, do signal a potential reveral. Remember that the reversals normally take place on excessive volume days. It traded 323k contracts yesterday, by far the highest volume day over the last month.
Quite hectic day with another sell off in the Euro and Corn. S&P was very choppy and took out the key support at 1259, but found support down at 1252 and rallied into the close, which should open for a move close the gap up at 1277.50 from Tuesday.
See S&P 500 emini chart below. The average true range for the last 9 sessions is 16.9 points. We traded 2.478m contracts today, which is good amount, we have seen several reversals on days with 2,5m or more contracts traded. Yesterday had 2,7m contracts traded.
I was looking for Corn to bounce today as the gap down at 721 was filled, but it continued to tank and is down close to 100 points the last week, wow. The volume has also increased on the sell off and we have closed at the very bottom of the daily range 3 days in a row, which signals that smart money has been selling in force. Next key support is 686 now, the rising support from the March low.
http://avantagefinancial.ch/intraday_service?avantagefinancial_ch=sci52jvh4mculaergl8o9cuhn7
Good day in the futures today, showing 1550 USD gain in the delta one trading, with all trades being winners. Still have a Euro and crude structure that I will keep overnight.
Perfect inside day in Crude for range trading and it treated me well playing the 94,60 to 95.30 range 7 times duting today's session. All were winners, so good thing.
Looking at the Crude oil chart it looks like yesterday could actually be a false break down. We will get the answer tomorrow most likley. The above average volume yesterday, do signal a potential reveral. Remember that the reversals normally take place on excessive volume days. It traded 323k contracts yesterday, by far the highest volume day over the last month.
Quite hectic day with another sell off in the Euro and Corn. S&P was very choppy and took out the key support at 1259, but found support down at 1252 and rallied into the close, which should open for a move close the gap up at 1277.50 from Tuesday.
See S&P 500 emini chart below. The average true range for the last 9 sessions is 16.9 points. We traded 2.478m contracts today, which is good amount, we have seen several reversals on days with 2,5m or more contracts traded. Yesterday had 2,7m contracts traded.
I was looking for Corn to bounce today as the gap down at 721 was filled, but it continued to tank and is down close to 100 points the last week, wow. The volume has also increased on the sell off and we have closed at the very bottom of the daily range 3 days in a row, which signals that smart money has been selling in force. Next key support is 686 now, the rising support from the March low.
onsdag 15. juni 2011
15th of June recap
Just a quick update on today's trades posted on twitter:
Made 275 USD in 2 trades in Crude long and long Corn. That was more or less before the whole market broke down. I continued to manage the Euro futures and options structure through out the day making several adjustments. You can see all the listed trades on this link:
http://avantagefinancial.ch/images_up/avantagefinancial.ch/tradinglogtwitter.xlsx
I also added another Crude oil (CL) structure, sold 4x Aug 98.50 calls for 2.25 (= 9000 USD received) expiration 15 Jul and long 2x the Nymex mini contract.
So we will continue to hold the Euro structure and the Crude oil structure overnight.
Euro structure is now short 2x 1,41 puts and short 4x 1,42 calls for expiration Friday (CME contracts that expire 21 CET on Friday evening).
The Euro position is a pure short volatility position now as the vols got above 20% following the big down move today. To me that looks very high and think it will come back in tomorrow. However I am looking to hedge in the futures if needed and at this point I will try to hold them to expiration.
It is the final game of the Stanley Cup tonight by the way, go Canucks.
Have a nice evening
Made 275 USD in 2 trades in Crude long and long Corn. That was more or less before the whole market broke down. I continued to manage the Euro futures and options structure through out the day making several adjustments. You can see all the listed trades on this link:
http://avantagefinancial.ch/images_up/avantagefinancial.ch/tradinglogtwitter.xlsx
I also added another Crude oil (CL) structure, sold 4x Aug 98.50 calls for 2.25 (= 9000 USD received) expiration 15 Jul and long 2x the Nymex mini contract.
So we will continue to hold the Euro structure and the Crude oil structure overnight.
Euro structure is now short 2x 1,41 puts and short 4x 1,42 calls for expiration Friday (CME contracts that expire 21 CET on Friday evening).
The Euro position is a pure short volatility position now as the vols got above 20% following the big down move today. To me that looks very high and think it will come back in tomorrow. However I am looking to hedge in the futures if needed and at this point I will try to hold them to expiration.
It is the final game of the Stanley Cup tonight by the way, go Canucks.
Have a nice evening
tirsdag 14. juni 2011
Trading recap for the Twitter trades
Trading wise, I held 2 trades overnight, Euro short and crude long. The Euro was stopped out and the Crude long worked out well.
I did 7 trades (round turns) on the day(including the 2 trades kept overnight) and the result was 492 USD profit on the 50 000 model account, which is 0.985% on the day. I am still holding the Euro structure that I put on today, which was buying 1x future at 1.4409 and selling 2x the 1.4450 calls (CME options) for expiration 17 Jun (Friday). The big contributor today was Crude oil, which gave me 612,50 USD in profit on the day. Remember that you can follow the trades live over my Twitter account.
You can see full list of trades under this link:
http://avantagefinancial.ch/images_up/avantagefinancial.ch/tradinglogtwitter.xlsx
I did 7 trades (round turns) on the day(including the 2 trades kept overnight) and the result was 492 USD profit on the 50 000 model account, which is 0.985% on the day. I am still holding the Euro structure that I put on today, which was buying 1x future at 1.4409 and selling 2x the 1.4450 calls (CME options) for expiration 17 Jun (Friday). The big contributor today was Crude oil, which gave me 612,50 USD in profit on the day. Remember that you can follow the trades live over my Twitter account.
You can see full list of trades under this link:
http://avantagefinancial.ch/images_up/avantagefinancial.ch/tradinglogtwitter.xlsx
14th of June recap
The S&P made the bounce I was looking and I mentioned in today's market report that I think the low yesterday will hold for the rest of the week. I stick to this prediction. Next key level is the Thursday high at 1288.50, followed by last week's high at 1292.75.
The gap in the US 10 Year at 124'04 was finally filled. I have had this down move on the agenda over the last week. Next downside target is 123'20
Corn sold off after it failed to take out 800 last week. The weather forecast for the next 10 days has improved and USDA raised its weekly good to excellent rating to 69% from 67%. It filled the gap at 766 that I had as the downside objective after the selling interest emerged Friday (up bar that closed way off the highs, actually in the lower half of the bar). There has to be good amount of selling to knock down the price that much after making a new high. We have Fibonacci retracement at 747 1/2 as support and we have the rising support at 748. Might be interesting to look to trade long tomorrow for a bounce higher? Will have a fresh look tomorrow when we open, but looking at the chart now it looks interesting to buy dips tomorrow.
Last chart I want to mention is the Live Cattle. It looks like it is trying to bottom out and today's up bar on increased volume looks bullish. First objective is the 23,6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent down move from 122 to 102.
The gap in the US 10 Year at 124'04 was finally filled. I have had this down move on the agenda over the last week. Next downside target is 123'20
Corn sold off after it failed to take out 800 last week. The weather forecast for the next 10 days has improved and USDA raised its weekly good to excellent rating to 69% from 67%. It filled the gap at 766 that I had as the downside objective after the selling interest emerged Friday (up bar that closed way off the highs, actually in the lower half of the bar). There has to be good amount of selling to knock down the price that much after making a new high. We have Fibonacci retracement at 747 1/2 as support and we have the rising support at 748. Might be interesting to look to trade long tomorrow for a bounce higher? Will have a fresh look tomorrow when we open, but looking at the chart now it looks interesting to buy dips tomorrow.
Last chart I want to mention is the Live Cattle. It looks like it is trying to bottom out and today's up bar on increased volume looks bullish. First objective is the 23,6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent down move from 122 to 102.
14th of June trade log
We are heading into the Lunch hour in the US and here is a list over the trades posted on Twitter today so far:
Date: Tuesday 14 June
Futures
Market trade contracts Entry Exit Profit/Loss
Euro short 1 1,4381 1,4411 -375
QM (Crude mini) long 1 97,1 97,675 287,5
QM (Crude mini) long 1 97,025 97,275 125
QM (Crude mini) long 1 96,65 96,85 100
QM (Crude mini) long 1 96,65 96,85 100
Euro futures long 1 1,4387 1,4393 75
Live Cattle long 1 104 104,45 180
Total futures 7 492,5
Options and futures
Premium
Euro short 2 1,445 put exp 17 June 1250 received in premium for selling the option (total structure will be booked when trade is closed)
Euro long 1 1,4409 delta hedging the 1.4450 calls
Profit for structure 0
Total for the day 492,5
All figures are ex commissions
Date: Tuesday 14 June
Futures
Market trade contracts Entry Exit Profit/Loss
Euro short 1 1,4381 1,4411 -375
QM (Crude mini) long 1 97,1 97,675 287,5
QM (Crude mini) long 1 97,025 97,275 125
QM (Crude mini) long 1 96,65 96,85 100
QM (Crude mini) long 1 96,65 96,85 100
Euro futures long 1 1,4387 1,4393 75
Live Cattle long 1 104 104,45 180
Total futures 7 492,5
Options and futures
Premium
Euro short 2 1,445 put exp 17 June 1250 received in premium for selling the option (total structure will be booked when trade is closed)
Euro long 1 1,4409 delta hedging the 1.4450 calls
Profit for structure 0
Total for the day 492,5
All figures are ex commissions
fredag 10. juni 2011
Performance week 23
The result speaks for itselt. All structures were winners, traded total of 40 contracts making 8,24% or 4117.50 USD on the model account of 50 000 USD (ex commission). Wow, very nice.
Make sure to follow my Twitter to see the trades real time
click here to see performance file and list of trades
Performance from June 7th 2011
We assume accout size of 50 000 USD to be able to trade the signals and be able to meet the margin requirements
Week 23
Overall 4117,5
Futures 2717,5
Futures &options 1400
Daily Break down
Monday
Tuesday 1165
Wednesday 740
Thursday 125
Friday 2087,5
Total Weekly performance 4117,5
Percentage return 8,24 % (based on requirement of 50 000 USD balance)
number of contracts traded 40
Make sure to follow my Twitter to see the trades real time
click here to see performance file and list of trades
Performance from June 7th 2011
We assume accout size of 50 000 USD to be able to trade the signals and be able to meet the margin requirements
Week 23
Overall 4117,5
Futures 2717,5
Futures &options 1400
Daily Break down
Monday
Tuesday 1165
Wednesday 740
Thursday 125
Friday 2087,5
Total Weekly performance 4117,5
Percentage return 8,24 % (based on requirement of 50 000 USD balance)
number of contracts traded 40
Friday 10th of June
More down on the S&P500 and the Euro got sold off pretty hard, trading down to low 1.43's. Crude and Live cattle posted solid loses as well.
We hit that 1272 (June contract) target that I outlined earlier this week.
Regarding the trading, the short Euro 1.45 puts turned out to be a good trade as the Euro fell as I expected and I hedged the delta at 1.4536 and 1.4468, effectively making the premium of 54 pips, pluss 2 pips in the spot.
I mentioned earlier this week that I am looking for a move towards 1.42 at least. Might be coming faster than I thought. Was also able to get a decent trade in Crude oil buying on dips, getting about 25 cents on 2 trades. Was decent considering that Crude had a pretty weak day.
Corn traded up to a new front month all time high, but saw heavy resistance at 799 and fell back to close more or less unchanged at 785. That signals weakness to me and I reckon we are going lower start of next week.
Make sure to follow twitter for live comments and trading calls.
Have a nice weekend
We hit that 1272 (June contract) target that I outlined earlier this week.
Regarding the trading, the short Euro 1.45 puts turned out to be a good trade as the Euro fell as I expected and I hedged the delta at 1.4536 and 1.4468, effectively making the premium of 54 pips, pluss 2 pips in the spot.
I mentioned earlier this week that I am looking for a move towards 1.42 at least. Might be coming faster than I thought. Was also able to get a decent trade in Crude oil buying on dips, getting about 25 cents on 2 trades. Was decent considering that Crude had a pretty weak day.
Corn traded up to a new front month all time high, but saw heavy resistance at 799 and fell back to close more or less unchanged at 785. That signals weakness to me and I reckon we are going lower start of next week.
Make sure to follow twitter for live comments and trading calls.
Have a nice weekend
torsdag 9. juni 2011
Trading Thursday 9th of June
I contiune to trade the S&P futures and options strategy, mainly selling options and hedging the delta. This is a pretty active program so I cannot post all trades as hedges and options are adjusted dynamically as the market trades.
That being said, my bias was for a move higher today, following 6 straight down sessions and losing 62 points. Was actually looking for a move higher yesterday as well, but that didn't happen. Felt we got a bit too short too fast over the last sessions. My bullish confirmation was the break above 1383.50 and that signalled to me the market would look for 1295. Why 1295? Because that is the 2 days high and a read reversal would only take place if we break above 1295. I mentioned this on twitter today as well during the day.
The high turned out to be 1294. Another thing that stands out is the lack of volume on the rally today, only 973k contracts in the S&P 500 Emini. The average volume the previous 6 sessions was above 2m per day. The explanation for this if of course the roll into the September month contract.
In other markets the Euro was all over the place during the Trichet press conference. When it broke 1.4550 I felt the pressure would be to the downside and I think we can see 1.42 or so near term now. I saw value in selling the 1.45 put for expiration tomorrow (CME contract, not OTC) when futures traded 1.4536 as the vols was above 20%, paying me 54 pips. I hedged the delta right away going short at 1.4536. So that will be interesting to see how develops towards the expiration at 21 CET tomorrow. My strategy is to sell more futures if we break 1.4470. if we go higher I have to take some shorts off, but only if we break 1.4550. I did trade some scalping on the Corn following the gap open above the key resistance at 767, making. Closed right at key resistance at 784, so it could go both ways near term I reckon. But general feeling is buying dips above 767 (former resistance now support)
Will come back with more info in the morning. Good night
That being said, my bias was for a move higher today, following 6 straight down sessions and losing 62 points. Was actually looking for a move higher yesterday as well, but that didn't happen. Felt we got a bit too short too fast over the last sessions. My bullish confirmation was the break above 1383.50 and that signalled to me the market would look for 1295. Why 1295? Because that is the 2 days high and a read reversal would only take place if we break above 1295. I mentioned this on twitter today as well during the day.
The high turned out to be 1294. Another thing that stands out is the lack of volume on the rally today, only 973k contracts in the S&P 500 Emini. The average volume the previous 6 sessions was above 2m per day. The explanation for this if of course the roll into the September month contract.
In other markets the Euro was all over the place during the Trichet press conference. When it broke 1.4550 I felt the pressure would be to the downside and I think we can see 1.42 or so near term now. I saw value in selling the 1.45 put for expiration tomorrow (CME contract, not OTC) when futures traded 1.4536 as the vols was above 20%, paying me 54 pips. I hedged the delta right away going short at 1.4536. So that will be interesting to see how develops towards the expiration at 21 CET tomorrow. My strategy is to sell more futures if we break 1.4470. if we go higher I have to take some shorts off, but only if we break 1.4550. I did trade some scalping on the Corn following the gap open above the key resistance at 767, making. Closed right at key resistance at 784, so it could go both ways near term I reckon. But general feeling is buying dips above 767 (former resistance now support)
Will come back with more info in the morning. Good night
Thursday 9th of June S&P 500 Emini futures
Equities bouncing back a bit and the S&P 500 futures closed up for the first time in seven sessions. The only problem is that we sold off quite a bit into the close, which is a sign of weakness. Remember that we have been seeing rally into the close for the most part of the last 12 months as we moved higher. The market feels much changed now and the bears are in control for the time being. The key today was the break above 1283.50 resistance early in the session, which opened for 1295. However it didn't quite reach that 1295, making high at 1294. Then we sold off to close at 1287.50, bascially right at the VWAP (1287.90). See 5 min chart below
What is next? The tendency is that we tend to trade higher during the week of the roll. So, I would not be surprised to see a rally towards 1308 or so, but there I expect to see more sellers step in. I contiune to expect fairly choppy ranges and think we have more work to the downside in the medium term and expect to see a test of the yearly low at 1243 in the coming weeks. Then I see 1224 as the target for the down move.
What is next? The tendency is that we tend to trade higher during the week of the roll. So, I would not be surprised to see a rally towards 1308 or so, but there I expect to see more sellers step in. I contiune to expect fairly choppy ranges and think we have more work to the downside in the medium term and expect to see a test of the yearly low at 1243 in the coming weeks. Then I see 1224 as the target for the down move.
annoucement
I have decided to change the outlook of the blog and post interesting trade set ups and charts as well as a small recap of the days trading, but in much shorter version than earlier
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